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Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve through Vector Autoregressive models: Results from the Euro area

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Author Info
Luca Fanelli ()

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Abstract

In this paper we set out a test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The proposed technique does not rely on the Anderson and Moore (1985) method and can be implemented with any existing econometric software. The idea is to use a VAR involving the inflation rate and the forcing variable(s) as the expectation generating system and find the restrictions that nest the NKPC within the VAR. The model can be estimated and tested through maximum likelihood methods. We show that the presence of feedbacks from the inflation rate to the forcing variable(s) can a?ect solution properties of the NKPC; when feedbacks are detected the VAR should be regarded as the final form solution of a more general structural model. Possible non-stationary in the variables can be easily taken into account within our framework. Empirical results point that the standard “hybrid” versions of the NKPC are far from being a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation in the Euro area.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Statistics, University of Bologna in its series Quaderni di Dipartimento with number 0.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bot:quadip:4

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation dynamics; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Forwardlooking behavior; VEqCM.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bjørnstad, Roger & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD Panel Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(23), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(33), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(24), pages 1-26. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roger Bjørnstad and Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Will it float? The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data," Discussion Papers 463, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luca Fanelli, 2009. "Estimation of quasi-rational DSGE monetary models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan de Dios Tena & Jorge Dresdner & Ivan Araya, 2007. "A multimarket approach to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws076917, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve revisited," Discussion Papers 500, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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