Conditional Leptokurtosis in Energy Prices: Multivariate Evidence from Futures Markets
AbstractWe study the joint movements of the returns on futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas at a daily frequency. We model the leptokurtic behavior through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena (2004). Futures prices of crude and heating oil co-vary strongly. The correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and crude oil has been rising over the last 5 years. However, this correlation has been low on average over two thirds of the sample, indicating that futures markets have no established tradition of pricing natural gas as a function of developments on oil markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 595.
Date of creation: May 2007
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Other versions of this item:
- Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2007. "Conditional Leptokurtosis in Energy Prices: Multivariate Evidence from Futures Markets," Research Papers in Economics 2007:11, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
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