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Disagreement in households' inflation expectations and its evolution

Author

Listed:
  • Shusaku Nishiguchi

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kei Imakubo

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

One of the aspects characterizing inflation expectations is the degree of disagreement or dispersion in such expectations, and dispersion in households' inflation expectations is quite substantial. In phases in which inflation expectations alter, the shape of the distribution of inflation expectations, which reflects the dispersion, may change even when other measures of inflation expectations such as the mean and the median remain unchanged. This article examines how the distribution of households' medium-horizon inflation expectations in Japan evolves over time using the Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior. The analysis shows that during the episode of rising prices since 2013 the expectations distribution has displayed notable changes that were not observed in the phase of rising prices in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Shusaku Nishiguchi & Jouchi Nakajima & Kei Imakubo, 2014. "Disagreement in households' inflation expectations and its evolution," Bank of Japan Review Series 14-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev14e01
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    2. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    3. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
    4. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimation of firms' inflation expectations using the survey DI," Discussion Paper Series 749, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2015. "Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan: Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing," IMF Working Papers 2015/186, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hunziker, Hans-Ueli & Raggi, Christian & Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina & Zanetti, Attilio, 2022. "The impact of guidance, short-term dynamics and individual characteristics on firms’ long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    10. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.

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