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Descomposición histórica del crecimiento de Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Rowert Mariscal
  • Álvaro Céspedes Tapia
  • José A. Pantoja Ballivián

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

La investigación explica los factores productivos que más incidieron en el crecimiento económico para el periodo de 1950 a 2018; también se construye la brecha con respecto al PIB potencial para similar periodo. Para ello, se aplica la metodología de contabilidad del crecimiento y métodos econométricos (filtro de Hodrick Prescott, Baxter King, Kalman y un modelo SVAR). Los resultados señalan que la productividad total de factores incidió, en mayor magnitud, durante los primeros cuarenta años, seguida del capital humano y físico para los siguientes treinta años. Además, el ciclo económico en Bolivia dura alrededor de veinte años y cada nueva década, en promedio, el PIB observado pasa a estar encima o por debajo del nivel potencial. Mediante descomposición histórica se observa que para incrementar el nivel potencial es necesario la formulación de políticas relacionadas con expandir la oferta agregada ya que son las únicas que presentan un impacto de largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Rowert Mariscal & Álvaro Céspedes Tapia & José A. Pantoja Ballivián, 2019. "Descomposición histórica del crecimiento de Bolivia," Serie de Documentos de Trabajo 2019/06, Banco Central de Bolivia.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:doctra:2019/06
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gob.bo/webdocs/publicacionesbcb/2021/05/48/39%20-%20Descomposici%C3%B3n%20hist%C3%B3rica%20del%20crecimiento%20de%20Bolivia.pdf
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gob.bo/?q=pub_documentos-trabajo
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desarrollo económico; cambio tecnológico y crecimiento;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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