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Un indicador de tendencia inflacionaria alternativo para la economía boliviana: la inflación latente

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En este documento se propone una medida alternativa de indicador de tendencia inflacionaria que contribuya a comprender de mejor manera la evolución de la inflación en la economía boliviana. Para tal propósito se construye el indicador denominado inflación latente, el cual se entiende como la parte de la inflación observada que no tiene efectos sobre el producto real en el mediano y largo plazo, en el marco de la hipótesis de neutralidad del dinero (una curva de Phillips vertical). Esto se logra mediante la incorporación de restricciones dinámicas a un VAR Estructural empleando la metodología de Quah y Vahey (1995) bajo las restricciones estructurales propuestas por Blanchard y Quah (1989). Los resultados reflejan que la inflación observada y la latente tuvieron un comportamiento similar en el periodo entre 1995 y 2013, excepto en algunos casos en los cuales se advirtieron shocks de oferta internos y/o externos.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea, 2013. "Un indicador de tendencia inflacionaria alternativo para la economía boliviana: la inflación latente," Serie de Documentos de Trabajo 2013/02, Banco Central de Bolivia.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:doctra:2013/02
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación latente; VAR Estructural; neutralidad del dinero en el largo plazo; política monetaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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