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Expectativas de realineamiento cambiario en Uruguay

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  • Jorge Polgar

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

Este trabajo desarrolla y aplica un modelo para el estudio de la credibilidad de la política cambiaria en Uruguay durante el período 1993 - 2000. El modelo permite construir medidas separadas para la percepción del mercado respecto a la probabilidad y para la magnitud de un realineamiento en el valor del peso. Estas medidas se basan en un modelo de umbrales para la determinación del momento del realineamiento cambiario. El modelo se resuelve mediante métodos de optimización numérica para horizontes de uno, dos y tres meses. Se encuentra evidencia de que, durante la mayor parte del período considerado, la banda cambiaria fue creíble, y que en los momentos en que no lo fue, la devaluación esperada era de poca magnitud.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Polgar, 2001. "Expectativas de realineamiento cambiario en Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2001005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2001005
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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/5.2001.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2001
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