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Explorando la incertidumbre inflacionaria: 1973-1995

Author

Listed:
  • Umberto Della Mea

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Alejandro Pena

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

This document is a first approach, based on the uruguayan experience, to the relationship between the rate of inflation and its uncertainty. It aims to assess whether the empirical evidence supports the usual belief that higher inflation rates are more difficult to predict. Our estimates allow to build a time profile for period-to-period uncertainty during the last two decades. The analysis of causality supports the usual assumption that higher rates of inflation cause -in Granger’s sense- higher levels of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Umberto Della Mea & Alejandro Pena, 1996. "Explorando la incertidumbre inflacionaria: 1973-1995," Documentos de trabajo 1996001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:1996001
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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/1.1996.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1996
    Download Restriction: no
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Isabel Cristina Ruiz, 2005. "Empirical analysis on the real effects of inflation and exchange rate uncertainty: The case of Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, April.

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