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A Feasible Approach to Projecting Household Demand For The Digital Ruble in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Vadim Grishchenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Sergey Seleznev

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We estimated a model of households’ usage of alternative payment instruments (cash and bank cards) using a new dataset from a survey of Russian households. In our modelling set-up, households’ preferences are determined by the instruments’ perceived attributes and hence their choice regarding payment methods depends on the differences across instruments in these attributes. The results indicate a statistically significant sensitivity of consumer choice to the perceived attributes. We employ the estimated model to evaluate the demand for CBDC depending on its expected design and consumers’ perception of it. We discuss several illustrative projections to demonstrate the application of the tool developed. The predicted utilisation of CBDC varies considerably depending on the attributes hypothesised, although under the conservative assumptions, the projected use of CBDC in household transactions is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadim Grishchenko & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergey Seleznev, 2023. "A Feasible Approach to Projecting Household Demand For The Digital Ruble in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps108, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps108
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : Central Bank Digital Currency; Digital Ruble; payment instruments; ordered probit; banknotes; bank cards; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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