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Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?

Author

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  • Claudio Borio
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Egon Zakrajšek

Abstract

The strength of the link between money growth and inflation depends on the inflation regime: it is one-to-one when inflation is high and virtually non-existent when it is low. A link can also be seen in the recent possible transition from a low- to a high-inflation regime. An upsurge in money growth preceded the inflation flare-up, and countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation. Looking at money growth would have helped to improve post-pandemic inflation forecasts, suggesting that its information value may have been neglected.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann & Egon Zakrajšek, 2023. "Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?," BIS Bulletins 67, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:67
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