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Un Pronóstico no Paramétrico de la Inflación Colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Norberto Rodríguez N.
  • Patricia Siado C.

Abstract

This paper contains the results of a non parametric multi-step ahead forecast for the monthly Colombian inflation, using Mean conditional Kernel estimation over inflation changes, with no inclusion of exogenous variables. The results are compared with those from an ARIMA and a nonlinear STAR. The nonparametric forecast over perform the others two, as well as being the only, from the three, that statistically improved the naive forecast given by a random-walk model.

Suggested Citation

  • Norberto Rodríguez N. & Patricia Siado C., 2003. "Un Pronóstico no Paramétrico de la Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 248, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:248
    DOI: 10.32468/be.248
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Manuel Julio & Norberto Rodríguez & Héctor Manuel Zárate, 2005. "Estimating the COP Exchange Rate Volatility Smile and the Market Effect of Central Bank Interventions: A CHARN Approach," Borradores de Economia 2605, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Javier Gómez Pineda & María Paola Figueroa, 2003. "Modelo Mensual de Canales de Transmisión," Borradores de Economia 3240, Banco de la Republica.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric forecast; Kernel Estimation; Forecast Evaluation; Bandwidth Selection; Rolling Forecast.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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