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Output potenziale, gap e inflazione in Italia nel lungo periodo (1861-2010): un'analisi econometrica

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Baffigi

    (Banca d'Italia, Servizio Studi di Struttura Economia e Finanziaria. Divisione Storia economica e finanziaria)

  • Maria Elena Bontempi

    (Università degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche)

  • Roberto Golinelli

    (Università degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche)

Abstract

We exploit the new historical national accounts data for Italy over the period 1861-2010, built by Banca d’Italia and Istat, with the collaboration of the University of Rome “Tor Vergata†. In the first part of the paper, a thorough study of the new data’s statistical properties is presented mainly aimed to analyse the variability of the cyclical component of constant price GDP. The GDP cyclical component, interpreted as output gap, is used, in the second part of the paper, to assess the Phillips curve’s ability to explain inflation dynamics over a wide variety of circumstances, over the 150 years of the country’s history. In Italy, the relation linking inflation with the cyclical situation in the economy emerged only after World War I, while in US and UK it was operating already in the mid 19th century.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Baffigi & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli, 2013. "Output potenziale, gap e inflazione in Italia nel lungo periodo (1861-2010): un'analisi econometrica," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 29, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_29
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2014. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 301-334, September.
    2. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    3. Massimiliano Agovino & Michele Bevilacqua & Massimiliano Cerciello, 2022. "Language as a proxy for cultural change. A contrastive analysis for French and Italian lexicon on male homosexuality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 149-172, February.
    4. Fabio Clementi & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Growth and Cycles of the Italian Economy Since 1861: The New Evidence," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 25-59, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output potenziale; gap e inflazione;

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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