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The crisis and employment in Italy

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  • Federico Cingano

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Roberto Torrini

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Eliana Viviano

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The fall in employment and the increase in unemployment rates in Italy in 2009 were fairly modest, given the sharp drop in GDP and compared with the recession of the early 1990s. This work shows that these data should be interpreted with caution, however. Firstly, employment trends as measured by Italian labour force survey may understate the decline in total employment if, as seems plausible, a lag exists between the entry of immigrants into the country and their registration. Secondly, the rise in the unemployment rate has been curbed by extensive recourse to temporary income support schemes to reduce working hours (such as the Cassa integrazione guadagni or Wage Supplementation Fund) in the northern regions, and by the sharp drop in participation in the South (the discouragement effect). The results of the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Industrial and Service Firms conducted in September 2009 show that the largest employment cuts occurred in the firms most exposed to international markets. Based on estimated labour input elasticity and on the available GDP forecast for 2010-11, we calculate that Italian employment is likely to remain well below its pre-crisis level in the coming quarters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 68.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_68_10

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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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Keywords: crisis; employment; unemployment;

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Cited by:
  1. FERRAGINA, Anna Maria, 2013. "The Impact of FDI on Firm Survival and Employment: A Comparative Analysis for Turkey and Italy," CELPE Discussion Papers 127, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
  2. Adalgiso Amendola & Anna Maria Ferragina & Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2012. "Are exporters and multinational firms more resilient over a crisis? First evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1914-1926.

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