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Financial spillovers to emerging economies: the role of exchange rates and domestic fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Alessio Ciarlone

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Daniela Marconi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Financial integration of emerging economies is on the rise and so are financial and monetary spillovers, especially those originating from US economic policy decisions and the (related) evolution of the US dollar. We revisit the “trilemma” vs. “dilemma” hypothesis and assess whether, and to what extent, exchange rate regimes and other relevant country fundamentals affect the sensitivity of domestic financial conditions to global risk aversion and US financial conditions. Results for a sample of 17 emerging economies over the period 1990-2018 suggest that the trilemma hypothesis appears to be still valid, as more flexible exchange rate regimes help in mitigating spillovers to stock market returns, sovereign spreads and real credit growth. However, other country fundamentals such as the current account, trade integration and US dollar debt exposure are also important factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Ciarlone & Daniela Marconi, 2020. "Financial spillovers to emerging economies: the role of exchange rates and domestic fundamentals," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 571, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_571_20
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2020-0571/QEF_571_20.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trilemma; global financial cycle; financial conditions; emerging market economies; international policy transmission; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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