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New version of the quarterly model of Banco de España (MTBE)

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Arencibia Pareja

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • Mercedes de Luis López

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ortega

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España), is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for performing scenario simulations. The model is specified as a large set of error correction equations, and, especially in the short run, is mostly demand driven. This paper presents an update of the model, estimated with data from 1995 to 2014. In this iteration, a big revamp to the econometric techniques used in estimation has been implemented. Despite that, changes in coefficients and simulation results with respect to the previous version of the model are smaller than what we saw in earlier updates. Compared with MTBE-2014, this new version (MTBE-2017) shows less response of demand to interest rates and stock market prices but more to credit, less response of GDP to world demand but more to world prices and to the price of oil, more positive effects to output and employment from price and wage moderation, and slightly faster and bigger fiscal multipliers for some shocks (government consumption and investment, direct taxes to households) but smaller for others (indirect taxes, direct taxes to firms).

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Arencibia Pareja & Samuel Hurtado & Mercedes de Luis López & Eva Ortega, 2017. "New version of the quarterly model of Banco de España (MTBE)," Occasional Papers 1709, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1709
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/17/Fich/do1709e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olympia Bover, 2008. "The Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF): description and methods of the 2005 wave," Occasional Papers 0803, Banco de España.
    2. Olympia Bover, 2008. "Oversampling of the wealthy in the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF)," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 399-402, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Olympia Bover, 2011. "The Spanish survey of household finances (eff): description and methods of the 2008 wave," Occasional Papers 1103, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
    2. Samuel Hurtado & Pablo Manzano & Eva Ortega & Alberto Urtasun, 2014. "Update and re-estimation of the quarterly model of Banco de España (MTBE)," Occasional Papers 1403, Banco de España.
    3. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    4. Pablo Aguilar & Beatriz González & Samuel Hurtado, 2021. "The design of macroeconomic scenarios for climate change stress tests," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Spring.
    5. Pablo Aguilar & Beatriz González & Samuel Hurtado, 2022. "Carbon tax sectoral (CATS) model: a sectoral model for energy transition stress test scenarios," Occasional Papers 2218, Banco de España.
    6. Pablo Aguilar & Beatriz González & Samuel Hurtado, 2021. "The design of macroeconomic scenarios for climate change stress tests," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue MAY.
    7. Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spanish economy; macroeconometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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