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Regime Dependence, Common Shocks and the Inflation-Relative Price Variability Relation

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Author Info

  • Tomás Castagnino

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Laura D´Amato

    ()
    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run adding extra noise to that usually present at high frequencies. High inflation also leads to ideosyncratic movements in prices that do not cancel out, adding persistence to the process. When inflation is low, no long-run interaction between variables is expected. This is the case of the US, even though supply shocks are comparable to those of the seventies when trend inflation was high. Surprisingly, the findings for Argentina do not support the a-priori as both variables show significant long term comovement. Studying disaggregate price responses to common shocks helps to understand sectoral pattens behind these dynamics. Our results suggest that long run variablity in inflation can be induced, not only by a high trend inflation, but also by policy stabilization efforts based on relative price adjustments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its series BCRA Working Paper Series with number 200838.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200838

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Related research

Keywords: Argentina; common shocks; frequency domain analysis; inflation; monetary policy; regime; relative prices;

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References

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  1. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Andrew P. Blake & Martin Weale & Garry Young, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 164(1), pages 100-109, April.
  4. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2005. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Working Papers 93, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
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  7. Michael T. Kiley, 2004. "Is moderate-to-high inflation inherently unstable?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani & Juan M. Sotes, 2008. "Inflation Persistence and Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(50), pages 127-167, January -.
  9. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-60, June.
  10. Nath, Hiranya K., 2004. "Inflation and relative price variability: short-run vs. long-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 363-369, March.
  11. Anindya BANERJEE & Paul MIZEN & Bill RUSSELL, 2002. "The Long-Run Relationship among Relative Price Variability, Inflation and the Markup," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/01, European University Institute.
  12. Parsley, David C, 1996. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability in the Short and Long Run: New Evidence from the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 323-41, August.
  13. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
  14. Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou & Carlos Dabús & Diego Caramuta, 2006. "A Non-linear "Inflation-Relative Prices Variability" Relationship: Evidence from Latin America," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/09, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomás Castagnino & Laura D’Amato, 2008. "Regime and Underlying Inflation Dynamics: ¿Generalized Comovement or Relative Price Adjustment?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(52), pages 87-120, October -.

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