Inflation Persistence and Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case
AbstractWe study the evolution of inflation persistence in Argentina between 1980 and 2007, a period in which significant changes in mean inflation can be detected by simple observation. We adopt both a timeseries univariate and a frequency-domain approach. Following the former perspective breaks in the mean are identified, with inflation being highly persistent during the high inflation period, but less persistent since the adoption of the Convertibility regime and the decline of the inflation rate afterwards. When we analyze the "low inflation" period separately, we are able to identify changes in both mean and persistence of inflation before and after the adoption of a managed float in 2002. In this sense, frequency-domain analysis shows that overall volatility in prices is significantly higher during the post-Convertibility regime, though the contribution of high-frequency (temporary and seasonal) movements to this volatility was relatively more important during the Convertibility regime.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its series BCRA Working Paper Series with number 200723.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Argentina; frequency-domain approach; inflation persistence; time-varying mean; time-series;
Other versions of this item:
- Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani & Juan M. Sotes, 2008. "Inflation Persistence and Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(50), pages 127-167, January -.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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