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Towards an Estimation of Money Demand with Forecasting Purposes

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  • Horacio Aguirre

    ()
    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Tamara Burdisso

    ()
    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Federico Grillo

    ()
    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

This paper aims at producing forecasts of monetary aggregates which are useful in formulating monetary policy in Argentina; in particular, forecasts that allow evaluation of alternative economic scenarios, with a 5-quarter horizon and of both public and private monetary aggregates. With that aim, relationships between different aggregates – currency, M1*, M2*, M3*- and two of their determinants (GDP and interest rates) are estimated. The period selected (1993-2005) spans two different macroeconomic regimes, something problematic when analyzing long-run relationships: coefficients differ from those suggested by economic theory; and cointegration relationships are not stationary. In contrast, short-term models are estimated that exhibit acceptable goodness-of-fit, and evidence of stable parameters. In-sample forecasts do not display errors significantly different from zero, and observations between 2004:III and 2005:III are included within one-standard deviation confidence intervals. Additionally, forecast unbiasedness is obtained. Thus, models show good forecast capacity. However, taking into account the Central Bank’s aims and constraints, more demanding criteria should be applied: although forecast errors are not significant, they turn more persistent as the forecast horizon is extended; and they currently seem to indicate underestimation of narrow aggregates and overestimation of broad ones. Such behaviour may be related to more “cash-intensive” money holdings after the crisis. An adjustment to forecasts is proposed in order to deal with this problem. The models obtained can be used to evaluate whether a given monetary target is consistent with a certain macroeconomic scenario, using as inputs variables whose forecasts can be obtained from models developed at BCRA.

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File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP%202006%2011_i.pdf
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File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP%202006%2011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its series BCRA Working Paper Series with number 200611.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200611

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Related research

Keywords: Argentina; forecasts; monetary aggregates; monetary policy; money demand;

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References

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  1. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  2. Hilde Bj�rnland, 2005. "A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 375-385.
  3. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2004. "Three Decades of Money Demand Studies. Some Differences and Remarkable Similarities," Working Papers 88, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  5. Ilek, David & Ilek, Alex, 2007. "The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel," MPRA Paper 4704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
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