Petróleo e o Reequilíbrio de Mercado: um modelo econométrico de projeção de preços

Currently in the oil market, the main question is: how should oil prices behave in order to ensure the rebalancing of the market? To answer this question, this paper presents an alternative pricing model to the Hotelling model. In this alternative model, the non-OPEC companies produce as much oil as possible, there are speculators and the market equilibrium is only assessed in the long-term, so that the relationship between the prices of different maturities is more flexible than suggested by the Hotelling model, with the alternative model providing justifications for the general shape of the futures price curve. This alternative model was then integrated with the global oversupply simulation model developed here and the long-term price it generated, allowing the estimation of current prices. The results indicate that (1) the current global oversupply should be reversed only from 2017 and (2) WTI price should begin to show a recovery trend, converging to US$65 in 2020.