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Expectativas Inflacionárias e Inflação Implícita no Mercado Brasileiro

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  • Flávio de Freitas Val
  • Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo
  • Marcelo Verdini Maia
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    Abstract

    The trade volume of inflation indexed bonds has grown substantially in the treasury debt market. These bonds have been used as an important instrument for both diversifying investor´s portfolio, for managing firms´ liabilities and, mainly, for extracting inflation expectations by policymakers. This paper adds to the literature in twofold. First, we apply methodologies to obtain inflation expectations. Thus, we modified the method used in Durham (2007) to estimate the inflation risk premium. Second, we apply these methods in the Brazilian debt market for inflation indexed bonds issued from 2006 to 2008. Our results show that these methods perform better about inflation expectations, providing a more robust support for policymakers´ decisions.

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    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/port/TD225.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 225.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:225

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    Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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