Credit Risk Monte Carlos Simulation Using Simplified Creditmetrics' Model: the joint use of importance sampling and descriptive sampling
AbstractMonte Carlo simulation is implemented in some of the main models for estimating portfolio credit risk, such as CreditMetrics, developed by Gupton, Finger and Bhatia (1997). As in any Monte Carlo application, credit risk simulation according to this model produces imprecise estimates. In order to improve precision, simulation sampling techniques other than traditional Simple Random Sampling become indispensable. Importance Sampling (IS) has already been successfully implemented by Glasserman and Li (2005) on a simplified version of CreditMetrics, in which only default risk is considered. This paper tries to improve even more the precision gains obtained by IS over the same simplified CreditMetrics' model. For this purpose, IS is here combined with Descriptive Sampling (DS), another simulation technique which has proved to be a powerful variance reduction procedure. IS combined with DS was successful in obtaining more precise results for credit risk estimates than its standard form.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 132.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2007-06-02 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ECM-2007-06-02 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FMK-2007-06-02 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2007-06-02 (Risk Management)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.