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Utilidad de una Medida de la Eficiencia en la Generación de Ventas para la Predicción del Resultado

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Author Info
María Cristina Abad Navarro () (Departamento de Contabilidad y Economía Financiera, University of Seville)
Abstract

En este trabajo evaluamos la utilidad de una medida de la eficiencia en la generación de ventas, para la predicción del resultado de explotación futuro, bajo la hipótesis de que si la medida de la eficiencia es capaz de capturar el componente permanente de los resultados, debería ser útil para la predicción de los resultados futuros, en adición a los resultados actuales. Con el objetivo anterior, en una primera etapa, utilizamos el Análisis Envolvente de Datos (DEA) para determinar la ineficiencia relativa de las empresas en el uso de los recursos a su disposición para generar el nivel máximo posible de ventas. Los inputs incorporados en el modelo DEA (gastos de personal, consumos de materias primas y otros, amortización, y otros gastos de explotación) se obtienen a partir de información contenida en la Cuenta de Pérdidas y Ganancias. En la segunda etapa, la medida de ineficiencia se introduce como variable explicativa en un modelo de regresión en el que la variable dependiente es el resultado de explotación en el año inmediatamente posterior. Los resultados del estudio empírico indican que la medida de ineficiencia relativa proporcionada por el modelo DEA tiene contenido informativo para la predicción del resultado de explotación futuro, en adición al resultado de explotación actual y pasado.

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File URL: http://selene.uab.es/dep-economia-empresa/documents/03-7.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2003
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Paper provided by Department of Business Economics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona in its series Working Papers with number 200307.

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Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bbe:wpaper:200307

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