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Floods, Terrorist Attacks and the COVID-19 Pandemic: How the (De)Centralization of Power Affects the Rally around the Flag

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  • Ignacio Lago

    (International Center for Public Policy)

  • Andre Blais

    (International Center for Public Policy)

Abstract

This article examines whether rally effects when an unexpected calamity occurs are affected by the degree of (de)centralization of power. We argue that when the national government is exclusively in charge of the policy affected by the calamity, the rally should be comparatively greater than when the responsibility is shared between several levels of government. The argument is tested using observational data from national legislative and presidential elections after 423 major floods, 226 terrorist attacks and 61 pandemic elections. We find that it is only in centralized countries that incumbent governments perform better under a more severe pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lago & Andre Blais, 2023. "Floods, Terrorist Attacks and the COVID-19 Pandemic: How the (De)Centralization of Power Affects the Rally around the Flag," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper2303, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2303
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    File URL: https://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2023/01/paper2303.pdf
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