Credit Rationing and Exchange-Rate Stabilization: Examining the Relation between Financial Frictions, Exchange-Rate Volatility, Lending Rates, and Capital Inflows
AbstractThis paper develops and tests a model of the relation between the volatility of the exchange rate, default rates, the level of interest rates on loans, and the availability of credit, laying emphasis on frictions in the financial market, specifically foreclosure costs to collecting bad debts. On the assumption that foreign sources of funds are crucial for domestic finance, the paper tests the hypothesis of a high positive relation between the volatility of the exchange rate and the lending rate, and between the volatility of the exchange rate and capital inflows, on a sample of 54 countries over 1980-2000. The paper finds that exchange-rate and macroeconomic volatility are strong predictors of capital inflows (but not of lending rates) and that there may be an important role for financial frictions in the transmission process. Moreover, the paper finds that episodes of disinflation that rely on a reduction of the rate of depreciation tend to be accompanied by lower exchange rate volatility (in addition to simply lower rates of devaluation). Both effects, but principally the latter through financial frictions, suggest a solution to the lack of connection between the theory and the stylized facts of exchange rate-based stabilizations: ERBS programs may lead to initial booms through should cause a significant rise in the availability of credit, even if the cost of credit does not fall by much.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ave Maria University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0902.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
interest rates; exchange rate volatility; financial frictions; creditor rights; exchange rate based stabilization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2009-09-05 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2009-09-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-09-05 (Monetary Economics)
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