Rethinking Age-Period-Cohort Mortality Trend Models
AbstractLongevity risk arising from uncertain mortality improvement is one of the major risks facing annuity providers and pension funds. In this paper we show how applying trend models from non-life claims reserving to age-period-cohort mortality trends provides new insight in estimating mortality improvement and quantifying its uncertainty. Age, period, and cohort trends are modelled with distinct effects for each age, calendar year, and birth year in a generalized linear models framework. The effects are distinct in the sense that they are not conjoined with age coefficients, borrowing from regression terminology, we denote them as main effects. Mortality models in this framework for age-period, age-cohort, and age-period-cohort effects are assessed using national population mortality data from Norway and Australia to show the relative significance of cohort effects as compared to period effects. Results are compared with the traditional Lee-Carter model. The bilinear period effect in the Lee-Carter model is shown to resemble a main cohort effect in these trend models. However the approach avoids the limitations of the Lee-Carter model when forecasting with the age-cohort trend model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales in its series Working Papers with number 201212.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
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Mortality Modelling; Age-Period-Cohort Models; Generalized Linear Models; Lee-Carter Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2012-06-25 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-06-25 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-06-25 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HEA-2012-06-25 (Health Economics)
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- Su, Shu & Sherris, Michael, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Australian population mortality and implications for a viable life annuity market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 322-332.
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