Future Consequences of Unsustainable Real Estate Market Development Caused by Urban Shrinkage

Urban shrinkage is a significant challenge in many countries across the globe. However, it is a serious challenge, especially in European countries. For instance, it has been estimated that one-fifth of European cities have experienced population loss between 1990 and 2010. Urban shrinkage will cause significant problems for the local real estate market, such as decreasing real estate prices and values, the decay of buildings, segregation, increasing vacant and abandoned properties. Uncertain value development of the local estates can drive the total economic base of the city at risk. In addition, the current unsustainable real estate market development causes many negative consequences that can have far-reaching implications for the future development of the real estate market. Our research focuses on future real estate market development in shrinking cities, aiming to identify and explain the future consequences of the forces of change affecting the local real estate market. First, the forces of change such as megatrends, trends, wild cards, driving forces, and weak signals were identified by utilizing the Environmental scanning method. Second, the future consequences of the forces for change were analysed by utilizing the future wheel method. This method is mainly used in future research to reveal primary, secondary, and tertiary consequences of trends, events, or emerging issues. The results of our research are useful for several parties operating in the real estate market, such as urban planners, real estate investors and owners.