Dynamics of the Nigerian Housing Market

The Nigerian real estate market has grown over the years. From contributing about 3.37% to GDP in 2010, it contributed 6.79% to GDP in 2017 (as per the data from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics). It has also improved in transparency parameters; from being ranked 96th in the JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index (2012) it was ranked 69th in the 2018 rankings. However, there is very little formally and consistently reported real estate data, with no accessible property databank and there is no reliable benchmarks such as house price index in the country. This lack of data and state of opacity has hindered extensive and empirical analysis of the local market. For the residential real estate sector, a reliable House Price Index is crucial in information flow across various stakeholders in the market and setting expectations based on fundamental aspects of the market, thereby reducing measurement error issues in empirical estimations.In this PhD work, I am undertaking three strands of research. First, we would develop a house price index based on transaction data using established methods (such as hedonic and repeat sales frameworks). Second, we would examine the dynamics of ownership and renting market using user cost of capital framework. Third, we would undertake a detailed analysis of the informal market structure and recommend policy framework for bringing efficiency in the housing market.Standard economic theoretical frameworks (related to revealed preference, symmetric information, market transmission channels) will be brought in and research hypotheses will be tested using appropriate empirical methods (e.g. regression-based analysis) and property transaction as well as economic indicator data.