Forecasting the Greek office price index using macroeconomic leading indicators

The aim of the research is to evaluate potential forecasting models for the Greek office market, based on macroeconomic variables. As available data – i.e. the office property index – only cover a short time span, from 2006 until 2016, an alternative forecasting approach is examined and presented, along with its respective advantages, disadvantages and potential. The reference period includes partly the commercial market boom that started around 2000 and leveled up in 2006-2008, as well as the on-going recession period that started in late 2009. The proposed forecasting model examines the forecasting significance of the most commonly appearing, in the existing literature, macroeconomic variables, as well as additional parameters describing the particularities of the economic environment in Greece.