Leading indicator in Thai real estate crisis and cycle

The question of this study is what variables are leading indicator to forecast real estate crisis and real estate cycle due to the growth of real estate business is important for the Thai economy.The survey methodology is using two types of data, quantitative and qualitative information. Quantitative data is to use vector autoregressive (VAR) to work out what are the variables with the most effect and what is the suitable lagging period. All variables are quarter data, 79 quarters. Y variable is quarterly Thailand transaction real estate value (RE-VALUE) because most of real estate price index has not significant effect during before and after crisis in 1997. X variables are quarterly Thai stock market (SET), gross domestic product (GDP) and minimum loan rate (MLR).The result is that RE-VALUE1st lagged increase 1 MB will affect the current quarter of RE-VALUE decrease 0.5868 MB at significant 95 %. RE-VALUE3rd lagged increase 1 MB will affect the current quarter of RE-VALUE decrease 0.3993 MB at significant 95 %. GDP 3rd lagged increase 1 % will affect the current quarter of RE-VALUE increase 3,268.69 MB at significant 95 %. Qualitative data analysis is done by in-depth interview selected 6 experts from relevant subjects with 4 topic questions, definition of real estate business cycle, expectation of similarity of the upcoming real estate crisis in Thailand comparing with the last crisis, opinion in pseudo demand and speculation, opinion in macroeconomic variables which affect to real estate business. To sum up, real estate cycle in Thailand is not obvious, possibly too similar to the other business one cycle is around 7-9 years. The real estate cycle corresponds with GDP and interest rate.The result from VAR shows that the next 5 quarters, 2016 Q3, is the last quarter RE-VALUE in position sign. Afterwards, the value is almost stable. The forecast shows that this business will start to be recession again nearly. Moreover, the forecast of MLR 1st Diff is minus zero from the first quarter.This is the sign that they need to reduce capital cost in order to remain selling price, Forecasting shows GDP 1st Diff is 1.34% only the first quarter after that will be increase a little bit and minus. Qualitative analysis shows that GDP is significantly to the growth of real estate business.