Real estate development for a changing user market

The recent collapse of the non-residential real estate development & construction market rises the question, what the future demand will be for real estate space and how these will influence future development activities. The aim of this research is to provide a framework for stock-flow analysis and forecasting of real estate development (macro, per sector and per property type, such as office, industrial, commercial , health care, school and public buildings). The economic approach of investment for expansion of the space stock is based on the growth of production by the observed economic sectors and on the growth of the economy as a whole (GDP). This is confronted with analysis of the physical growth of a sectoral stock (in square meters or otherwise), as production and accommodation capacity. Moreover with the growth of the use of the stock (such as employees in offices, scholars in schools and so on). Additionally future investment for renewal of the building stock depends on the life time structure of the present building stock renewal and the capability of this stock to meet contemporary requirements (after refurbishment). Topical problems in The Netherlands are a high vacancy and underutilization of offices and of other buildings and business complexes. Re-use and transformation activities are limited. The agrarian, industrial and logistical sector tend to a high replacement activity, with relocation and spatial concentration. Consequently this leads to high disinvestment and disposal of buildings which cannot meet contemporary technological, economic and environmental standards. Generally, the (trend of) new development for expansion and replacement of the building stock is slightly downward. An exception is the health sector, with a growing shortage of facilities for an ageing population. Unfortunately, development activity for the health care and the non-profit sector will be limited by financial conditions.