Testing For The Relationship Between Turnover Rate And Business Cycle In Taiwan'S Real Estate Market

Because of the lower interest rate, loan on favorable terms of the government, lower ratio of land value increase tax and inheritance tax, the housing price keeps increasing after the first season of 2003 in Taiwan. At the same time, the people real income growth ratio is negative which made the higher housing price become the first of the people's grievance in 2009. So far the studies of real estate boom or the relationship between of price and volume are used the variables as transaction volume and price (or price index) to discuss about the trends and the bubble of real estate. Therefore, we can describe the market transaction more simply by the turnover rate than by the volume. The turnover rate is the percent of transaction volume divided by the stock of housing represented the regional floating which be related to the regional investment rate, but most researchers has paid little attention to this. We would use time series analysis to test the stationary of the turnover rate. In this paper we want to answer if the turnover rate stationary. Does the higher turnover rate cause of the housing price keep increasing? If the answer is not, we would to test the stationary under different real estate cycle. We hope could find a simple index as turnover rate for everyone to describe the real estate cycle.