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Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach

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  • Petr Zemcik
  • Vyacheslav Mikhed

Abstract

A bursting bubble in a housing market can have a severe negative impact on consumption and GDP. Hence, it is of interest to identify a presence of the bubble in a timely fashion. Existing tests often rely on the relationship between house prices and their corresponding fundamentals, e.g. rents. These tests typically employ standard univariate unit root methodology and require relatively long time series, which precludes a timely testing. We therefore combine panel data tests for unit roots, cointegration and Granger causality using shorter time span data on house prices and rents in the US metropolitan areas. For our full sample, we find that there is no relationship between house prices and rents in levels but there is one in first differences. Also, a ëbubble indicatorí, which is one whenever there is no statistical relationship between levels of our two variables, is defined and applied to overlapping ten-year periods. This indicator shows that one period of possible bubble occurred in the late 1980s and another in 2001-2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Zemcik & Vyacheslav Mikhed, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," ERES eres2007_128, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2007_128
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    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2007-128
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhi, Tianhao & Li, Zhongfei & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Wei, Lijian & Sornette, Didier, 2019. "Is there a housing bubble in China?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 120-132.
    2. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    3. Tianhao Zhi & Zhongfei Li & Zhiqiang Jiang & Lijian Wei & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Is there a housing bubble in China," Papers 1801.03678, arXiv.org.
    4. Phuong Lan Le & Anh Tuan Do & Anh Ngoc Pham, 2023. "What Influenced Hanoi’s Apartment Price Bubble between 2010 and 2021?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    6. Darrell Jiajie Tay & Chung-I Chou & Sai-Ping Li & Shang You Tee & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    7. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    8. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Thuy Bui, 2023. "Non-linear structures, chaos, and bubbles in U.S. regional housing markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 63-93, March.
    9. J. R. Kim & K. Chung, 2014. "Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price-rent relationship: evidence from the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(33), pages 4041-4052, November.
    10. Kenneth Kuttner & Ilhyock Shim, 2012. "Taming the Real Estate Beast: The Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Housing Prices and Credit," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Christian Tutin, 2010. "Qu'est-il arrivé aux marchés du logement ?," Post-Print hal-01811775, HAL.
    12. Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Why Should Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth Converge? Evidence from Italian Regions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43955, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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