The Dutch Office Sector: Office Market Recovery from Point of View of a Changing Long Run Perspective

The Dutch office suppliers suffer from falling prices, lower market absorption, growing competitive supply and high vacancy of first and second hand office buildings. In the late nineties new office construction was booming. This was favoured by economic growth, employment growth, low capital costs, sellers market conditions and speculative development. Since 2000 the huge supply lost its rational economic base and this was strengthened by 9-11-2001. In the mean time there were a lot of projects in the pipeline. These were not stopped as long as investors expected that yields would not rise, rents would not fall and vacancy would not rise. Since 2001 we observe lower market absorption, growing supply and more vacancy. Nowadays we are still waiting for a substantial market recovery. Dominant aspects in the short run are; slow recovery of economic growth after an economic shrinkage in 2003, absence of growth of office employment in combination with jobless growth, oversupply in former years, cost reduction and more employees on the same square meters. In the long run we have to analyse for changes in the number, age and skills of office workers in combination with demographic, technological and economical changes of office work, office organisation and global distribution of knowledge, production and employment. In this research the office market analysis and its forecasting is based on the long term trend in the Dutch stock of offices and the yearly investments.