Uncertainty in valuations - results from a valuation experiment

The discussion about valuation accuracy and variations in valuation has been given new fuel when new worldwide accounting standards with a strong emphasis on market value are implemented. The most far- reaching suggestion is that changes over the year in market value should affect both the income statement and balance sheet. If this interpretation of the new accounting standard is implemented, then will a strong focus be on valuation variation and valuation accuracy as well as the magnitude of the property cycle. A general discussion about uncertainty in valuations is illustrated with results from a valuation experiment that give an indication about the magnitude of variation in estimated market values as well as variation in individual discounted cash flow parameters. The variation in market value estimates is found to be much dependent on the special market situation with fast escalating rents in Stockholm CBD during the late 1990s. The result from the experiment is discussed in relation to results from other studies and the findings are related to accounting. Conclusions are drawn about what other changes in the market could be expected when revaluation of real estate have a direct impact on both the income statement and balance sheet.