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Is There an Office Replacement Cycle?

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  • Michael Ball

Abstract

This paper examines whether office replacement cycles are likely to arise in the future, given the bunch nature of office building in the past into a series of building booms. Time series data on holdings of UK office buildings by investors are examined to see whether there is any evidence of a cyclical decline in building ages. It was found that, although declines are marked over time, they showed little evidence of a systematic cyclical pattern in relation to age. Estimates are then made of the outstanding stock of commercial buildings over time, which shows that the scale of new building is far more than any apparent need for replacement buildings. A series of arguments are then put forward to suggest that redevelopment of a particular age cohort of buildings is likely to be spread over a long period of time, so it is unlikely that a marked office replacement cycle will arise in the UK, or in any other country, in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ball, 2003. "Is There an Office Replacement Cycle?," ERES eres2003_109, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2003_109
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    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2003-109
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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