Modelling and Forecasting of Real Estate Sector in Lithuania

The model of efficient real estate sector suggested by this research is based on presumption that efficiency of real estate sector depends on many macro and microlevel variables. The presence of specific macro, meso and microlevel variable factors right away imposes objective limitations for efficient activities of real estate sector. The real estate sector, in presence of these objective limitations, tries to perform its functions in their bounds with utmost efficiency. The research aim is to produce a model of the rational real estate sector in Lithuania by undertaking a complex analysis of micro, meso and macro environment factors affecting it and to give recommendations on the increase of its competitive ability. The research was performed by studying the expertise of advanced industrial economies and by adapting it for Lithuania. Simulation was undertaken to provide insight into creating an effective real estate sector environment. While much advice has come from Western countries, little exchange of information and experience has gone on among countries in transition to learn about how others are tackling almost identical problems. Admittedly, there are successful models in developed market countries. However, there is no single universal model, but a variety of good solutions for different problems in different countries. Having investigated the effects of the variables affecting real estate sector in advanced industrial economies, some differences have been identified between these countries and Lithuania. On the basis of these differences, the main implications for Lithuania can be identified. The study of only one advanced industrial economy could lead to any inferences being purely subjective. However, by studying a number of countries any bias can be diminished. In other words, the presence of specific variable micro and macrolevel factors immediately imposes objective limitations on the efficient activities of interested parties. Interested parties, in the presence of these objective limitations, try to perform their activities in a more rational way. Based on the above considerations, it is possible to propose a model of an efficient real estate sector on the basis of the performed search for rational variable micro, meso and macrolevel factors for Lithuania. Upon completion of such a model, the interested parties will be able to use their financial resources in a more rational manner by taking into consideration existing limitations and existing possibilities of real estate sector environment. In order to find the most efficient real estate sector environment for a particular country it exhaustive conceptual and quantitative description should be made. Quantitative and conceptual description provides the information about various aspects (i.e. economical, technical, infrastructural, qualitative, legal, institutional, management, social ones, etc.) of real estate sector. The data of this quantitative and conceptual analysis are used in identifying real estate sector development trends in Western Europe and USA as well as providing some recommendations for Lithuania. Conceptual description of real estate sector presents textual, graphical (schemes, diagrams, etc.), numerical,visual (videotapes) information and the criteria used for their definition, as well as giving the reason for the choice of this particular system of criteria, their values and significances. Conceptual information is needed to make more complete and accurate evaluation of the alternatives considered. It also helps to get more useful information as well as developing a system and subsystems of criteria and defining their values and significances. In order to give a full assessment of the influence of the micro, meso and macrolevel factors (legislation, taxes (tax bracket, tax deduction, tax deferred, etc.), liquid secondary market, market transparency, professional bodies, lending institutions, real estate finance, mortgage, the techniques of selling property (sale-leaseback, lease with option to buy, etc.), insurance, information technology, education, valuerís liability, valuerís fee levels, contracts, investment instruments, housing subsidy system, credit access (use of low interest loans, waivers of closing costs, government and private mortgage insurance, reduced down payments, sweat equity, flexible debt-to-income ratios, lease-purchase arrangements, deferred second mortgage), etc.) in influencing the total efficiency of a real estate sector, it is necessary to analyse them in more detail in conceptual and quantitative forms. In order to demonstrate the application of the above techniques to developing of a rational real estate sector conceptual and quantitative models for Lithuania a determination of rational housing investment instruments and lenders will be considered below as a sample.