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The data sensitivity of UK office and retail supply forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Ball
  • Sotiris Tsolacos

Abstract

After summarising the weaknesses of official construction based data, this paper provides forecasts by estimating models of office and retail supply in the UK and some of its regions using quarterly data. It shows the sensitivity of the forecasts to the time period used in the modelling. This is argued to be the result of data problems and the actual history of property supply over the past quarter of a century. Forecasts consequently can vary significantly, depending on the time series used. Suggestions are made as to the best forecasts that can be made using such data.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ball & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "The data sensitivity of UK office and retail supply forecasts," ERES eres2001_111, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2001_111
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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