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Dynamic instability in a phenomenological model of correlated assets

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  • Giacomo Raffaelli
  • Matteo Marsili
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    Abstract

    We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This captures the fact that correlations determine the optimal portfolio but are affected by investment based on it. We show that such a feedback on correlations gives rise to an instability when the volume of investment exceeds a critical value. Close to the critical point the model exhibits dynamical correlations very similar to those observed in real markets. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model's parameter for empirical data indeed confirm this conclusion, thus suggesting that real markets operate close to a dynamically unstable point.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0508159
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number physics/0508159.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2005
    Date of revision: Apr 2006
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0508159

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    Cited by:
    1. Giacomo Livan & Jun-ichi Inoue & Enrico Scalas, 2012. "On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection," Papers 1205.0877, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    2. Anufriev, M. & Bottazzi, G. & Marsili, M. & Pin, P., 2011. "Excess Covariance and Dynamic Instability in a Multi-Asset Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Marsili, Matteo & Raffaelli, Giacomo & Ponsot, Benedicte, 2009. "Dynamic instability in generic model of multi-assets markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1170-1181, May.
    4. David Morton de Lachapelle & Damien Challet, 2009. "Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior," Papers 0912.4723, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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