AbstractWe argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced four years ago that stock market crashes are caused by the slow buildup of long-range correlations between traders leading to a collapse of the stock market in one critical instant. We qualify the log-periodic oscillations using a novel non-parametric method that does not rely on any fit: the corresponding log-periodogram exhibits a strong statistically significant peak for all six crashes examined, pointing at approximately the same prefered scaling ratio around 2.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/9901035.
Date of creation: Jan 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Risk, Vol 12, No. 1, p.91-94 (1999)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, . "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2002. "Non-Parametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0205531, arXiv.org.
- Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets," Papers 1003.5926, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash," Papers cond-mat/0004263, arXiv.org, revised May 2000.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Fundamental factors versus herding in the 2000–2005 US stock market and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 459-482.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev & Alexey Fomin, 2012. "Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts," Papers 1207.4069, arXiv.org.
- Fry, John, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper 36202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Heping Pan, 2012. "Yin-yang volatility in scale space of price-time: a core structure of financial market risk," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 377-405, August.
- Askar Akaev & Alexei Fomin & Andrey Korotayev, 2011. "The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series," Papers 1107.0480, arXiv.org.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Fundamental Factors versus Herding in the 2000-2005 US Stock Market and Prediction," Papers physics/0505079, arXiv.org.
- Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.