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Risk and Utility in Portfolio Optimization

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  • Morrel H. Cohen
  • Vincent D. Natoli

Abstract

Modern portfolio theory(MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Morrel H. Cohen & Vincent D. Natoli, 2002. "Risk and Utility in Portfolio Optimization," Papers cond-mat/0212187, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0212187
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    Cited by:

    1. Urbanowicz, Krzysztof & Richmond, Peter & Hołyst, Janusz A., 2007. "Risk evaluation with enhanced covariance matrix," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 468-474.

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