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Inverse Statistics in Economics : The gain-loss asymmetry

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  • Mogens H. Jensen
  • Anders Johansen
  • Ingve Simonsen

Abstract

Inverse statistics in economics is considered. We argue that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return is obtained from (often detrended) historic asset prices. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time called the {\em optimal investment horizon}, $\tau^*_\rho$, since this defines the most likely waiting time for obtaining a given return $\rho$. By considering equal positive and negative levels of return, we report on a quantitative gain-loss asymmetry most pronounced for short horizons. It is argued that this asymmetry reflects the market dynamics and we speculate over the origin of this asymmetry.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogens H. Jensen & Anders Johansen & Ingve Simonsen, 2002. "Inverse Statistics in Economics : The gain-loss asymmetry," Papers cond-mat/0211039, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0211039
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    Cited by:

    1. Harbir Lamba & Tim Seaman, 2008. "Market Statistics Of A Psychology-Based Heterogeneous Agent Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(07), pages 717-737.
    2. Steven D. Moffitt, 2018. "Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling "Theory" of Financial Markets For Practitioners and Theorists," Papers 1801.01948, arXiv.org.

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