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Analysis of market efficiency in main stock markets: using Karman-Filter as an approach

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  • Beier Liu
  • Haiyun Zhu

Abstract

In this study, we utilize the Kalman-Filter analysis to assess market efficiency in major stock markets. The Kalman-Filter operates in two stages, assuming that the data contains a consistent trendline representing the true market value prior to being affected by noise. Unlike traditional methods, it can forecast stock price movements effectively. Our findings reveal significant portfolio returns in emerging markets such as Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia, as well as positive returns in developed markets like the UK, Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong. This suggests that the Kalman-Filter-based price reversal indicator yields promising results across various market types.

Suggested Citation

  • Beier Liu & Haiyun Zhu, 2024. "Analysis of market efficiency in main stock markets: using Karman-Filter as an approach," Papers 2404.16449, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.16449
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