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Bias-Aware Inference in Regularized Regression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy B. Armstrong
  • Michal Koles'ar
  • Soonwoo Kwon

Abstract

We consider inference on a scalar regression coefficient under a constraint on the magnitude of the control coefficients. A class of estimators based on a regularized propensity score regression is shown to exactly solve a tradeoff between worst-case bias and variance. We derive confidence intervals (CIs) based on these estimators that are bias-aware: they account for the possible bias of the estimator. Under homoskedastic Gaussian errors, these estimators and CIs are near-optimal in finite samples for MSE and CI length. We also provide conditions for asymptotic validity of the CI with unknown and possibly heteroskedastic error distribution, and derive novel optimal rates of convergence under high-dimensional asymptotics that allow the number of regressors to increase more quickly than the number of observations. Extensive simulations and an empirical application illustrate the performance of our methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Koles'ar & Soonwoo Kwon, 2020. "Bias-Aware Inference in Regularized Regression Models," Papers 2012.14823, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2012.14823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Kolesár, 2018. "Optimal Inference in a Class of Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 655-683, March.
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    11. Timothy B. Armstrong & Michal Kolesár, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 77-108, January.
    12. Koohyun Kwon & Soonwoo Kwon, 2020. "Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs under Monotonicity," Papers 2011.14216, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Ketz & Adam Mccloskey, 2021. "Short and Simple Confidence Intervals when the Directions of Some Effects are Known," Working Papers hal-03388199, HAL.
    2. Kaspar Wuthrich & Ying Zhu, 2019. "Omitted variable bias of Lasso-based inference methods: A finite sample analysis," Papers 1903.08704, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.

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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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