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A Decomposition Approach to Counterfactual Analysis in Game-Theoretic Models

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  • Nathan Canen
  • Kyungchul Song

Abstract

Decomposition methods are often used for producing counterfactual predictions in non-strategic settings. When the outcome of interest arises from a game-theoretic setting where agents are better off by deviating from their strategies after a new policy, such predictions, despite their practical simplicity, are hard to justify. We present conditions in Bayesian games under which the decomposition-based predictions coincide with the equilibrium-based ones. In many games, such coincidence follows from an invariance condition for equilibrium selection rules. To illustrate our message, we revisit an empirical analysis in Ciliberto and Tamer (2009) on firms' entry decisions in the airline industry.

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  • Nathan Canen & Kyungchul Song, 2020. "A Decomposition Approach to Counterfactual Analysis in Game-Theoretic Models," Papers 2010.08868, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2010.08868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1481-1512, September.
    2. Federico Ciliberto & Elie Tamer, 2009. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1791-1828, November.
    3. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1749-1797, September.
    4. J. T. Chang & D. Pollard, 1997. "Conditioning as disintegration," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 51(3), pages 287-317, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2022. "Counterfactuals with Latent Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(1), pages 343-368, January.

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