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Confidence Interval for Off-Policy Evaluation from Dependent Samples via Bandit Algorithm: Approach from Standardized Martingales

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  • Masahiro Kato

Abstract

This study addresses the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) from dependent samples obtained via the bandit algorithm. The goal of OPE is to evaluate a new policy using historical data obtained from behavior policies generated by the bandit algorithm. Because the bandit algorithm updates the policy based on past observations, the samples are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, several existing methods for OPE do not take this issue into account and are based on the assumption that samples are i.i.d. In this study, we address this problem by constructing an estimator from a standardized martingale difference sequence. To standardize the sequence, we consider using evaluation data or sample splitting with a two-step estimation. This technique produces an estimator with asymptotic normality without restricting a class of behavior policies. In an experiment, the proposed estimator performs better than existing methods, which assume that the behavior policy converges to a time-invariant policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Kato, 2020. "Confidence Interval for Off-Policy Evaluation from Dependent Samples via Bandit Algorithm: Approach from Standardized Martingales," Papers 2006.06982, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.06982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jinyong Hahn & Keisuke Hirano & Dean Karlan, 2011. "Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 96-108, January.
    2. Zhengyuan Zhou & Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2023. "Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 71(1), pages 148-183, January.
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    5. Masahiro Kato & Masatoshi Uehara & Shota Yasui, 2020. "Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for External Validity under a Covariate Shift," Papers 2002.11642, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kato & Shota Yasui & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2020. "The Adaptive Doubly Robust Estimator for Policy Evaluation in Adaptive Experiments and a Paradox Concerning Logging Policy," Papers 2010.03792, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    2. Masahiro Kato & Kenshi Abe & Kaito Ariu & Shota Yasui, 2020. "A Practical Guide of Off-Policy Evaluation for Bandit Problems," Papers 2010.12470, arXiv.org.

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