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Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection

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  • Michael Roberts
  • Indranil SenGupta

Abstract

In this paper we present a sequential hypothesis test for the detection of general jump size distrubution. Infinitesimal generators for the corresponding log-likelihood ratios are presented and analyzed. Bounds for infinitesimal generators in terms of super-solutions and sub-solutions are computed. This is shown to be implementable in relation to various classification problems for a crude oil price data set. Machine and deep learning algorithms are implemented to extract a specific deterministic component from the crude oil data set, and the deterministic component is implemented to improve the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model, a commonly used stochastic model for derivative and commodity market analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection," Papers 2004.08889, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.08889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466, October.
    2. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil SenGupta, 2016. "Pricing variance and volatility swaps for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard process driven financial markets," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-35, December.
    3. Aziz Issaka & Indranil SenGupta, 2017. "Analysis of variance based instruments for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type models: swap and price index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 401-434, November.
    4. Indranil SenGupta & William Nganje & Erik Hanson, 2021. "Refinements of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard Model: An Analysis of Crude Oil Price with Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 39-55, March.
    5. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Pricing Covariance Swaps For Barndorff–Nielsen And Shephard Process Driven Financial Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-32, September.
    6. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    7. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional Lévy process-driven hypothesis testing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 121-139, March.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/332 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Generalized Bn–S Stochastic Volatility Model For Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Semere Habtemicael & Musie Ghebremichael & Indranil SenGupta, 2019. "Volatility and Variance Swap Using Superposition of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type Lévy Processes," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 75-92, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Humayra Shoshi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Hedging and machine learning driven crude oil data analysis using a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model," Papers 2004.14862, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. Shantanu Awasthi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "First exit-time analysis for an approximate Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with stationary self-decomposable variance process," Papers 2006.07167, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    3. Shubham Ekapure & Nuruddin Jiruwala & Sohan Patnaik & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "A data-science-driven short-term analysis of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft stocks," Papers 2107.14695, arXiv.org.
    4. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Indranil SenGupta & Yan Zhou & Hui Jiang, 2022. "Stochastic volatility modeling of high-frequency CSI 300 index and dynamic jump prediction driven by machine learning," Papers 2204.02891, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    5. Minglian Lin & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Analysis of optimal portfolio on finite and small time horizons for a stochastic volatility market model," Papers 2104.06293, arXiv.org.
    6. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Analysis of stock index with a generalized BN-S model: an approach based on machine learning and fuzzy parameters," Papers 2101.08984, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    7. Minglian Lin & Indranil SenGupta, 2023. "Analysis of optimal portfolio on finite and small-time horizons for a stochastic volatility model with multiple correlated assets," Papers 2302.06778, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.

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