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Economic Complexity: why we like "Complexity weighted diversification"

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  • Luciano Pietronero
  • Andrea Gabrielli
  • Andrea Zaccaria

Abstract

A recent paper by Hausmann and collaborators (1) reaches the important conclusion that Complexity-weighted diversification is the essential element to predict country growth. We like this result because Complexity-weighted diversification is precisely the first equation of the Fitness algorithm that we introduced in 2012 (2,3). However, contrary to what is claimed in (1), it is incorrect to say that diversification is contained also in the ECI algorithm (4). We discuss the origin of this misunderstanding and show that the ECI algorithm contains exactly zero diversification. This is actually one of the reasons for the poor performances of ECI which leads to completely unrealistic results, as for instance, the derivation that Qatar or Saudi Arabia are industrially more competitive than China (5,6). Another important element of our new approach is the representation of the economic dynamics of countries as trajectories in the GDPpc-Fitness space (7-10). In some way also this has been rediscovered by Hausmann and collaborators and renamed as "Stream plots", but, given their weaker metrics and methods, they propose it to use it only for a qualitative insight, while ours led to quantitative and successful forecasting. The Fitness approach has paved the way to a robust and testable framework for Economic Complexity resulting in a highly competitive scheme for growth forecasting (7-10). According to a recent report by Bloomberg (9): The new Fitness method, "systematically outperforms standard methods, despite requiring much less data".

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano Pietronero & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria, 2019. "Economic Complexity: why we like "Complexity weighted diversification"," Papers 1912.10955, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1912.10955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Gabrielli & Matthieu Cristelli & Dario Mazzilli & Andrea Tacchella & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2017. "Why we like the ECI+ algorithm," Papers 1708.01161, arXiv.org.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 193-221, August.
    3. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    4. Manuel Sebastian Mariani & Zhuo-Ming Ren & Jordi Bascompte & Claudio Juan Tessone, 2019. "Nestedness in complex networks: Observation, emergence, and implications," Papers 1905.07593, arXiv.org.
    5. Saleh Albeaik & Mary Kaltenberg & Mansour Alsaleh & Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2017. "Improving the Economic Complexity Index," Papers 1707.05826, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    6. Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Tacchella & Guido Caldarelli & Luciano Pietronero, 2013. "Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Lin,Justin Yifu, 2009. "Economic Development and Transition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521514521.
    8. Luciano Pietronero & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Gabrielli & Dario Mazzilli & Emanuele Pugliese & Andrea Tacchella & Andrea Zaccaria, 2017. "Economic Complexity: "Buttarla in caciara" vs a constructive approach," Papers 1709.05272, arXiv.org.
    9. Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Tacchella & Luciano Pietronero, 2015. "The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    10. Saleh Albeaik & Mary Kaltenberg & Mansour Alsaleh & C'esar A. Hidalgo, 2017. "729 new measures of economic complexity (Addendum to Improving the Economic Complexity Index)," Papers 1708.04107, arXiv.org.
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