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Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001

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  • Claudiu Herteliu
  • Bogdan Vasile Ileanu
  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Giulia Rotundo

Abstract

Population growth (or decay) in a country can be due to various f socio-economic constraints, as demonstrated in this paper. For example, sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. Data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years) is analyzed. The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses, thus on persons alive at that time. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish religious constraints and performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception deduced day, while the independent variables are: (i) religious affiliation; (ii) Nativity and Lent fast time intervals; (iii) rurality; (iv) day length; (v) weekend, and (vi) a trend background. Our findings are concordant with other papers, proving differences between religious groups on conception, - although reaching different conclusions regarding the influence of weather on fertility. The approach seems a useful hint for developing econometric-like models in other sociophysics prone cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Herteliu & Bogdan Vasile Ileanu & Marcel Ausloos & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001," Papers 1509.04564, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.04564
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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7463 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rotundo, G. & Ausloos, M. & Herteliu, C. & Ileanu, B., 2015. "Hurst exponent of very long birth time series in XX century Romania. Social and religious aspects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 109-117.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cătălin Emilian Boja & Claudiu Herţeliu & Marian Dârdală & Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, 2018. "Day of the week submission effect for accepted papers in Physica A, PLOS ONE, Nature and Cell," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(2), pages 887-918, November.
    2. Laura Piqué-Fandiño & Sandrine Gallois & Samuel Pavard & Fernando V Ramirez Rozzi, 2022. "Reproductive seasonality in the Baka Pygmies, environmental factors and climatic changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Claudiu Herteliu & Ionel Jianu & Iulia Jianu & Vasile Catalin Bobb & Gurjeet Dhesi & Sebastian Ion Ceptureanu & Eduard Gabriel Ceptureanu & Marcel Ausloos, 2021. "Money’s importance from the religious perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 375-399, April.
    4. Liu, Tianhao, 2021. "A study on day-of-week effect of submission: Based on the data of JSFST," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    5. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 2: Comparative analysis of salient features," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 88-96.
    6. Herteliu, Claudiu & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1046-1061.
    7. Jacek Cypryjański, 2019. "Changes in seasonality of births in Poland in the years 1900–2009," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(49), pages 1441-1454.
    8. Galam, Serge, 2016. "The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 209-217.
    9. Carles X. Simó-Noguera & Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía, 2020. "Lent impact on the seasonality of conceptions during the twentieth century in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 875-893, November.
    10. Cerqueti, Roy & Fenga, Livio & Ventura, Marco, 2018. "Does the U.S. exercise contagion on Italy? A theoretical model and empirical evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 436-442.
    11. Ausloos, Marcel & Nedic, Olgica & Dekanski, Aleksandar & Mrowinski, Maciej J. & Fronczak, Piotr & Fronczak, Agata, 2017. "Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 462-474.
    12. Liang Meng & Haifeng Wang & Pengfei Han, 2020. "Getting a head start: turn-of-the-month submission effect for accepted papers in management journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2577-2595, September.
    13. Jose M. Pavía & Josep Lledó, 2022. "Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 471-497, April.
    14. Ausloos, Marcel & Nedic, Olgica & Dekanski, Aleksandar, 2016. "Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 197-203.

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