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Direct Evidence for Synchronization in Japanese Business Cycle

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  • Yuichi Ikeda
  • Hideaki Aoyama
  • Hiroshi Iyetomi
  • Hiroshi Yoshikawa

Abstract

We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial sectors. Moreover, the partial phase locking was observed for the 16 sectors. These are the direct evidence of the synchronization in the Japanese business cycle. We also showed that the information of the economic shock is carried by the phase time-series. The common shock and individual shocks are separated using phase time-series. The former dominates the economic shock in all of 1992, 1998 and 2001. The obtained results suggest that the business cycle may be described as a dynamics of the coupled limit-cycle oscillators exposed to the common shocks and random individual shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuichi Ikeda & Hideaki Aoyama & Hiroshi Iyetomi & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2013. "Direct Evidence for Synchronization in Japanese Business Cycle," Papers 1305.2263, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1305.2263
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    Cited by:

    1. IKEDA Yuichi & AOYAMA Hideaki & YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi, 2013. "Synchronization and the Coupled Oscillator Model in International Business Cycles," Discussion papers 13089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Makoto Muto & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2020. "Synchronization analysis between exchange rates on the basis of purchasing power parity using the Hilbert transform," Papers 2010.08825, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. IKEDA Yuichi & AOYAMA Hideaki & IYETOMI Hiroshi & MIZUNO Takayuki & OHNISHI Takaaki & SAKAMOTO Yohei & WATANABE Tsutomu, 2016. "Econophysics Point of View of Trade Liberalization: Community dynamics, synchronization, and controllability as example of collective motions," Discussion papers 16026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Makoto Muto & Tamotsu Onozaki & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2023. "Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(30), pages 3472-3486, June.
    5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. MIZUNO Makoto & AOYAMA Hideaki & FUJIWARA Yoshi, 2020. "Constructing the Customer Journey Map of Competitive Brands: A Complex Time-series Analysis," Discussion papers 20070, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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