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On the Risk Management with Application of Econophysics Analysis in Central Banks and Financial Institutions

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Author Info

  • Dimitri O. Ledenyov
  • Viktor O. Ledenyov

Abstract

The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and show the appropriate techniques to calculate the various existing risks in the finances. We make a few comments on the possible limitations in the models of statistical modeling of volatility such as the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, because of the nonlinearities appearance in the nonlinear dynamical financial systems. We propose that the various types of nonlinearities, which can originate in the financial and economical systems, have to be taken to the detailed consideration during the Cost of Capital calculation in the finances and economics. We propose the new theory of nonlinear dynamic volatilities and the new nonlinear dynamic chaos (NDC) volatility model for the statistical modeling of financial volatility with the aim to determine the Value at Risk.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.4108
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1211.4108.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Publication status: Published in The Financial Times, The Bodley Head and The Random House first annual essay competition in London in the UK in 2012
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1211.4108

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References

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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  3. Viktor O. Ledenyov & Dimitri O. Ledenyov, 2012. "Designing the new architecture of international financial system in era of great changes by globalization," Papers 1206.2778, arXiv.org.
  4. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2012. "On the new central bank strategy toward monetary and financial instabilities management in finances: Econophysical analysis of nonlinear dynamical financial systems," Papers 1211.1897, arXiv.org.
  5. Viktor O. Ledenyov & Dimitri O. Ledenyov, 2012. "Shaping the international financial system in century of globalization," Papers 1206.2022, arXiv.org.
  6. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
  3. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the optimal allocation of assets in investment portfolio with application of modern portfolio and nonlinear dynamic chaos theories in investment, commercial and central banks," Papers 1301.4881, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
  4. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "To the problem of turbulence in quantitative easing transmission channels and transactions network channels at quantitative easing policy implementation by central banks," Papers 1305.5656, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
  5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "To the problem of evaluation of market risk of global equity index portfolio in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 47708, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2013.
  7. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the theory of firm in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1302.6721, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2013.

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