IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0902.2735.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume Masoliver
  • Josep Perello

Abstract

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting properties, the non-existence of a mean first-passage time. One significant result is the evidence of extreme deviations --which implies a high risk of default-- when certain dimensionless parameter, related to the strength of the volatility fluctuations, increases. We believe that this may provide an effective tool for risk control which can be readily applicable to real markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Masoliver & Josep Perello, 2009. "First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility," Papers 0902.2735, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0902.2735
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0902.2735
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhong, Guang-Yan & He, Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Mei, Dong-Cheng & Tang, Nian-Sheng, 2019. "Coherence resonance-like and efficiency of financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    2. Andrea Di Iura & Giulia Terenzi, 2022. "A Bayesian analysis of gain-loss asymmetry," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(5), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Zhong, Guang-Yan & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Jiang, George J. & Li, Hai-Feng & Tao, Hui-Ming, 2018. "The time delay restraining the herd behavior with Bayesian approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 335-346.
    4. Wu, Anshun & Dong, Yang & Luo, Yuhui & Zeng, Chunhua, 2020. "Fluctuations-induced regime shifts in the Endogenous Credit system with time delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Andrea Giuseppe Di Iura & Giulia Terenzi, 2021. "A Bayesian analysis of gain-loss asymmetry," Papers 2104.06044, arXiv.org.
    6. Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Sehyun & Jo, Yong Hwan & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets, and relevant multi-spread strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3842-3854.
    7. Dong, Yang & Wen, Shu-hui & Hu, Xiao-bing & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2020. "Stochastic resonance of drawdown risk in energy market prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    8. Ko, Bonggyun & Song, Jae Wook, 2018. "A simple analytics framework for evaluating mean escape time in different term structures with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 398-412.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0902.2735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.